BASAR GLOBAL INSIGHTS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Western Asia the Most Debt Free( deleverage) Societies in the World 2019-22

In the Middle East is the Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman the fastest growing economy in the region at 5% percent in 2018. From Saudi to Bahrain the Middle East is going through a major construction boom.The countries have real CRE value because they avoided leverage because. leverage is Riba(fiqh riba al duyun) an unjust charge, exploitive gains in the culture. The middle east banks are some of the strongest banks in the world. Islamic Banking has grown to 2.5 trillion in assets in 2019 according to Islamic Finance Service Board in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia. In fact de-leveraged Islamic banking is fastest growing banking product in the world expected to reach $ 3.8 trillion by 2021. GCC maintain its share of 42% percent of the assets, MENA countries (ex GCC)banks 29% percent of assets with Asian countries at 24% percent with expansions in Malaysia ,Indonesia,Pakistan, with penetration in Africa, the Americas, Australia and Europe.The method of investing in UAE and Gulf real estate market is through listed publicly traded REITs and development companies.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES INVESTMENT MARKETS

The United Arab Emirates FDI was $10.8B for 2018 and the country has a broadly integrated financial systems, great demographics,cultural diversity, a under-leveraged society with solid infrastructure and asset valuations based on capital flow finding equilibrium, meaning residential markets are moderating which will return to growth in 2020-21 and create sustainable value for global investors. European investors are considering Dubia for 2019, Spanish investment in Dubai has reached around US$800 million this year, putting Spain among the top three investors in terms of direct foreign capital in the Emirate.US investors are also considering UAE joint ventures in the UAE for 2019-2023.Most of debt free oil producing economies have strong banks and because they don’t allow widespread leverage from shadow banks in the property sector, so the CRE cycles are managable.

The Reits that we focus on are the GCC fund, Emirate REIT and ENBD REIT(ENBD-REIT) they are shariah compliant.The UAE was ranked the second best country in the world to live in 2018. A global business hub with no income or corporate tax for businesses or individuals. Also the UAE is developing a solid financial architecture and ongoing financial market development . With Dubai Financial Market ( DFM) stock exchange and global integration of DMCC to commodities markets around the world. For investors, Dubai is a 106 billion dollar economy– is it an investment for now. In the list of top 10 areas for real estate transactions, Business Bay came out on top followed by Dubai Marina, Al Barsha South Fourth, Al Merkadh, Al Warsan 1, Jebel Ali First, Burj Khalifa, Al Thanyah Fifth, Al Hebiah Fourth, and Al Yelayiss 2.The average house price in Dubai decreased to AED 2.6 million ($710,000) in February, as values continue to fall since the start of 2019, according to new research.Average annual house prices in Dubai decreased by 10.6 percent in February. Another trend in Dubai for 2019 is that more property sales will be online in 2019.

The Emirates offers the luxury property investors many amenities that cannot be found anywhere else. Emirate Airline is one of the worlds great airlines and one of the worlds most travel airport. Few people realize that Abu Dhabi is one of the most advance technological cities in the world with environmental diversity through solar power systems technology. State of the art living spaces, apartments museums and hotels that excel most of the worlds wealthiest cities. The Emirates are thought leaders on bitcoin and blockchain liberty and advancement . Although the UAE is still a transitional society and maintains the 49% rule concerning foreign direct investment outbound capital from Abu Dhabi has selected the countries that they plan to invest in 2019-2021 they including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France, the US, Canada, China, the UK, India and Germany.The UAE is one of the worlds top cross-border investors and is one of the largest investors in Africa at over $11B. Both UAE and Singapore are one of the worlds best governed societies. Both have large immigrant populations with UAE at 78% percent and a highly sophisticated cultural and global business awareness. Emirates own over 95% percent of CRE assets and rank as a home bias market. In Abu Dhabi and Dubai home prices and rents are flattening after a long cycle which are signs of strong governance control and falling oil price.We think the hotel sector in Dubai will offer investors the greatest upside for 2020 and beyond. FDI for the first 6 months of 2018 was up 26% percent to $4.8B. In terms of outflows UAE increase from 8% to $14B – equaling 41.8% percent of total outflows for western Asia. Dubai’s residential prices are down about 25 percent since their 2014 peak, about 31,500 homes will flood the market this in 2019, double the annual demand of the past five year says JLL real estate investment.

Investors realize that human capital and informational asymmetries are key components of global portfolio diversification. Dubai is facing questions on informational asymmetries as a challenge to portfolio managers investing in real estate listed companies. The city is an idea market for REIT and listed CRE development companies. However, the lack of well share data makes the investment markets in Dubai opaque. The reliability of GNP data in the U.A.E. is rated below that of major emerging economies including South Africa and India and has a poorer grade than such Middle Eastern countries as Bahrain, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, according to London-based research firm World Economics, which ranked 154 countries in its Data Quality Index published last September according Bloomberg report.“We don’t really get a current view of what’s going on right now, there’s a very significant lag between the data and the economy,” said Tarek Fadlallah, chief executive officer of the Middle East unit of Nomura Asset Management. “If companies and investors don’t have conviction that the economy or a sector that they’re investing in has a brighter outlook, then it’s very difficult to make those a investment decision.

“The market is starting to rebuild confidence in earnings as a driver for sentiment,” said Arqaam Capital in a research note. “Sentiment on the UAE was very weak in 2018, specifically for real estate, on concerns over oversupply risk, pricing pressure that is leading to extended payment plans, and a rental yield compression that is continuing to fall,” Arqaam said.“But Q4 numbers provided evidence that a few developers have emerged as winners (Emaar Co’s, Aldar) out of market consolidation.” Emaar Properties, Dubai’s largest listed developer, reported a 27 percent rise in fourth-quarter profit.The stock rose 2 percent in one day in March. DAMAC Properties closed up 0.8 percent, despite having reported a nearly 60 percent fall in full-year profit and an 87 percent drop in fourth-quarter net profits.In Abu Dhabi, Aldar Properties gained 3.6 percent. Last week, the developer reported a rise in fourth-quarter earnings and higher dividends for 2018. In other sectors, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank rose 0.5 percent after saying it had no merger and acquisition plans. This was in response to a Bloomberg report which said the bank was considering such options. Dubai is in a essential part of the world in terms of being a hub for the global companies’ who will be continuing their expansion into the Middle Eastern and African markets in 2019 and beyond.”Basar Group likes Emaar Development PJSC, which has “ a strong, double-digit cash flow yield.”We consider that “the story of Dubai both as a hub for businesses and a tourist destination looks to be very strong,” expects property stocks to generate around 15 percent dividend yields through 2021. Attractive payment plans, along with high returns despite falling housing rents, have led to a tremendous surge in Chinese demand for Dubai apartments. According to industry sources, property buyers from China are shifting interest from key markets and eyeing Dubai more than ever before, not only because the Emirate offers a high-quality lifestyle and low tax rates, but because it provides one of the best investment returns of 6 percent while most western markets are returning around 4% percent.In Dubai, the trend is different. “From 2015 to 2016, there was a 16 per cent increase in transactions by Chinese buyers, and from 2016 to 2017, there was a significant increase of 64 per cent. “Over the last few years, quite a few of the larger brokerages and the developers have invested a lot of time and resources to bring in more Chinese investors into the Dubai CRE market. The UAE has been increasing it ability to attract more capital in fact FDI has pass last year total in Q2. Today the UAE is rank the 25th most competitive society in the world surpassing all other Arab countries with eye on surpassing Singapore. The country was rank the 4th most technologically advance country.  The UAE has announce that they are developing the first artificial intelligence university in the world.  GDP in the UAE is expected to  grow to 2.9% percent by 2020 driven by work related to infrastructure project for the 2020 Expo in Dubai and the tourism sector. Although,there is some downside risk from lower oil prices and the global slowdown.  However for global CRE investors the UAE offers tremendous long term growth patterns with  the 9th freest economy and a excellent financially integrated  system. Concerning investment in the  UAE it is best to see what CRE value creation that has been created by the people and rulers of UAE as express through the vision of Sheik Zayed manifestation of forward looking modern future for the people of the UAE. It is best to see what CRE value creation that has created by the people and rulers of UAE in express in a 27 year period.

Attractive payment plans, along with high returns despite falling housing rents, have led to a tremendous surge in Chinese demand for Dubai apartments. According to industry sources, property buyers from China are shifting interest from key markets and eyeing Dubai more than ever before, not only because the Emirate offers a high-quality lifestyle and low tax rates, but because it provides one of the best investment returns of 6 percent while most western markets are returning around 4% percent.In Dubai, the trend is different. “From 2015 to 2016, there was a 16 per cent increase in transactions by Chinese buyers, and from 2016 to 2017, there was a significant increase of 64 per cent. “Over the last few years, quite a few of the larger brokerages and the developers have invested a lot of time and resources to bring in more Chinese investors into the Dubai CRE market. The UAE has been increasing it ability to attract more capital in fact FDI has pass last year total in Q2. Today the UAE is rank the 25th most competitive society in the world surpassing all other Arab countries with eye on surpassing Singapore. The country was rank the 4th most technologically advance country. The UAE has announce that they are developing the first artificial intelligence university in the world. GDP in the UAE is expected to  grow to 2.9% percent by 2020 driven by work related to infrastructure project for the 2020 Expo in Dubai and the tourism sector. Although,there is some downside risk from lower oil prices and the global slowdown.  However for global CRE investors the UAE offers tremendous long term growth patterns with  the 9th freest economy and a excellent financially integrated  system. Concerning investment in the UAE it is best to see what CRE value creation that has been created by the people and rulers of UAE as express through the vision of Sheik Zayed manifestation of forward looking modern future for the people of the UAE.

QATAR DOHA

Doha Qatar-The FDI of Qatar has increased by 4 percent or $7.8bn to $186bn at the end of the first quarter of 2018. The population of Qatar is 2.6 million people and has the best demographics for targeted CRE investments.This FDI increase is driven by Qatar’s revised legislation and regulations to provide further incentives to foreign investors and allowing up to 100 percent ownership in all sectors, which benefit from income tax exemptions as well as exemptions from customs duties on the import of all required goods for production. Minister Al Khawari said the illegal blockade imposed on Qatar by the Arab quartet was aimed at undermining Qatar’s position as an economically independent and sovereign state. However, it presented an opportunity for Qatar to cement its position as one of the most resilient, diverse and competitive economies in the region. Qatar has recently brought about radical structural reforms to tackle obstacles to the growth drivers, as part of opening up its economy for potential international investors. At the World Economic Forum (WEF), the Minister noted Qatar has sought to make its economy more accessible to the world. The country has begun to fast-track the implementation of progressive policies to further attract foreign direct investments. This increase is driven by Qatar’s revised legislation and regulations to provide further incentives to foreign investors and allow up to 100 percent ownership in all sectors, which benefit from income tax exemptions as well as exemptions from customs duties on the import of all required goods for production. The country has worked on establishing new shipping routes with its trade partners worldwide, including Pakistan, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, Turkey, India, Azerbaijan, and countries in Central Asia. Through agreements with these countries, Qatar aims to target a population of four hundred million, in the first stage. He added that Qatar aims to achieve this goal by capitalizing on its strategic location between East and West and utilizing its hi-tech logistics capability and world-class facilities such as Hamad Port and Hamad International Airport to bolster trade. The Minister explained that Qatar’s new port accounts for 27 percent of the regional trade volume in the Middle East with an annual capacity of 7.5 million shipping containers while Hamad International Airport is one of the biggest in the region. The airport links Qatar to more than 160 destinations through Qatar Airways, which was recently voted the best airline in the world. This strategy has proven to be highly successful so far. The Qatari exports increased by 18 percent in 2017, which resulted in a surplus of 49 percent in Qatar’s trade balance. Overall, Qatar’s foreign trade grew by 16 percent in 2017. The foreign companies that choose to operate in Qatar have now access to economic and logistics zones in strategic locations in close proximity to Hamad International Airport and Hamad Port. These areas support local and foreign investors through fully equipped sites of various sizes as well as sophisticated warehousing parks and industrial zones. Qatar is also allocating lands by way of rent for up to 50 years to foreign investors to establish their projects while allowing foreign companies to transfer their investment returns to their home countries in any convertible currency and investors to transfer the ownership of their companies to a Qatari or foreign investor in accordance with applicable laws. Currently, Qatar allows investors up to 100 percent ownership in free zones and offers tax exemptions for up to 20 years amid no restrictions on the repatriation of capital. The investors in these areas can export to local markets, tap investment funds and enter into joint ventures with local state-backed companies.Wealthy Qatar, the world’s top liquefied natural gas exporter, plans to increase residential space by about 50 percent and office space by 40 percent in the next three years, partly on expected demand from the World Cup.FIFA requires Qatar have at least 60,000 hotel rooms in place for the month-long World Cup tournament, which Qatar estimates will draw about 1.5 million fans – more than half of its roughly 2.6 million population. With the 4 nation blockade retail malls have light foot traffic from the more populated regional countries participated in the blockade in what one Arab shopper a young woman call it “political haram(immoral/unlawful) and she called it “another clown sectoral- tribal conflict against the Muslim humanity”. However, the over-suppy has effected the hotel sector, which leaves global investors only the logistic sector which should benefit over the long term from the new strategy . Qatar has about 26,500 rooms and will add another 15,000 by 2022, DTZ’s report estimated. The rest will be met by rooms aboard cruise ships and in desert camps, according to the local World Cup organizing committee. These camps are expected to be bedouin-style accommodation to give visitors a taste of desert life. Much of the building is in an entirely new city, Lusail, a 38-square kilometer stretch just north of Doha dotted by commercial towers, hotels, and shopping centers at various stages of construction. Lusail is being developed by state-controlled Qatari Diar Real Estate Company, which envisions it hosting 200,000 residents and 170,000 employees. It is anchored by Qatar’s largest World Cup stadium, an 80,000 seat venue that will host the opening and closing matches.There’s going to be massive structural oversupply for office infrastructure for the foreseeable future, well after the world cup is complete.The property downturn in Doha has so far has not translated into bad loans, as bankers say borrowers holding sluggish real estate assets tend to be among the country’s wealthiest. They have capacity to withstand the market … I don’t see a major threat,” Doha Bank CEO Raghavan Setharaman said, when asked about his view of the real estate market. Qatar’s massive energy generated surplus capital flow and its tiny population of just about 2.6 million mean it is the wealthiest country per capita in the world. Its sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority, established in 2005, oversees around $338 billion in assets, according to Sovereign Wealth Center. It’s the 11th largest fund in the world, according to the research organization. In London, Qatar-backed entities have purchased a number skyscrapers, including Canary Wharf, HSBC Tower, and The Shard. Qatar bought U.K. department store, Harrods back in 2010 Qatar raised its stake in British Airways owner IAG to 20 percent and purchased a 20 percent stake in London Heathrow last year.Qatar Sports Investments owns Paris Saint-Germain Football Club. In New York, Qatar’s investment arm bought nearly a 10 percent stake in, Empire State Realty Trust, the owners of the Empire State Building, last year. The skyscraper was recently lit up with Qatari flag colors to commemorate the 10th anniversary of flights on Qatar Airways between the U.S. and Doha. A Qatari media group, BeIN, purchased Miramax Studios last year for an undisclosed amount.The fund has also invested in Uber and recently announced plans to open an office in Silicon Valley to invest more into U.S.-based tech firms. It appears that a number of central Asian investor are looking at Qatar as an investment market.

State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan is planning on creating a joint venture with Qatar investment to invest in Doha. Investment by the sovereign wealth fund of Azerbaijan in Qatar currently stands at around $10m.

‘Although the size of the investment in Qatar is not large it is important, it will start at $10m. Once we find investment opportunities in Qatar, we will invest, although Qatar is a competitor in terms of investment, Shahmar Movsumov, Executive Director of the Fund . The fund has made investments in about 60 countries in the world, including Qatar. The total investment by the fund globally stands at $40bn, he added. Qatar is the most successful society to diversify their economy away from oil dependency in the Middle East. In essence Qatar the richest society in the world has just became the most open business society in the middle east. The risk of investing and successful financial integration are political frictions and the oversupply of capital flow in Qatar which can be a possible outcome for Saudi CRE markets. Both political friction and oversupply of capital are harmful to portfolio diversification. By Qatar new investment policy and use of its infrastructure and geographical location to expand to markets outside of the region,Qatar has made a China chess move on the blockade. The next move is can little Qatar expand its logistics and infrastructure REIT platform to increase its financial architecture to intensified itself as a hub for CRE industrial investment in the trending global diversification. Question becomes without the blockade conflict and capital over supply would the open policy and opportunity to invest exist”? Western and Asia Pacific countries all offer tremendous value creation for global investors as well as risk from capital over flow for portfolio managers. In the Asia Pacific is mix bag of investment opportunities at various stage of commercial real estate(CRE) cycle Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. In the Middle East, we have the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman the fastest growing economy in the region at 5% percent in 2018. From Saudi to Bahrain the Middle East is going through a major construction boom. UAE and Qatar have sophisticated integrated financial systems, great demographics, cultural diversity, financial market development, solid infrastructure and asset valuations based on capital flow finding equilibrium, meaning CRE markets are moderating which will return to growth in 2021 and create sustainable value for global investors.The risk for portfolio managers in western Asia are regional political friction and over supply of capital flow and low levels of TAR. In all the above country’s the (TAR) Transaction Activeness Ratio or TAR remains relatively low. The index refers to the ratio of annual investment transactions to invest-able real estate value, which can be quoted as an indicator of market liquidity. The joint venture theme will be the dominate deal structure throughout the east and western Asia emerging markets. It appears that REIT s are the current vehicle for equity global investors, considering short term liquidity needs. Our favorite GCC fund is a basket of real estate assets throughout the Gulf region and in the Asia Pacific direct investment and REITs based on what stage of CRE cycle. In Latin America, we think Brazil and Mexico each of these markets offer global investors challenges and reasonable upside over time. If targeting specific commercial real estate asset classes. For Mexico, the asset classes are retail, hotel, logistics which has been surging with constructions expansion in Mexico near the US border automobile plants. The Hotel market in Mexico is always a target for global investors seeking yield.